Day Two: Thursday 29^th November

08.30 Morning refreshments and welcome

09.00 Opening Remarks from the Chair

George Ferguson, Senior Analyst Aerospace Defence and Airlines, Bloomberg

09.05 Promises from the President: Export Credit Financing

If ECAs are extended to home markets what does this mean for US manufacturers and the availability of capital? Has ECA funding new aircraft for second tier airlines caused a value gap?

• Is uncertainty about ECAs unfounded?
• What will the new US Government policy on EXIM bank be?
• Should ECAs support further secondary market transactions?
• Will there be increased use of export credit by lessors?

Gordon Welsh, Director of Aerospace, UK Export Finance

Marcio Nobre Migon, Head of Department Aircraft Financing - Export Credit Division, Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Economico e Social (BNDES)

Doug Emerson, Senior Director, Boeing Capital

Leo Burrell, MD, Credit Agricole

Moderated by: Yevgeniya Levitin, Managing Director - Transportation Group, Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank

09.35 Trading older aircraft, ageing fleets and engines

Demand for aircraft has not recovered as expected. But is the second hand market dead, or simply stalled? Why don't airlines want to lease 10 year olds in production aircraft?

• Will trend for high replacement rates and parting out continue? How will lessors manage this?
• How have funding pressures impacted second-hand aircraft values? Are used aircraft continuing to be percieved as higher risk assets?
• Will the flood of new aircraft stymie the recovery in lease rates?
• Implication of ageing fleets (in North America): who will sell and who will buy?

Brian Postel, EVP, Universal Asset Management

Jared Dowell, Vice President, Compass Capital Corporation

Eric Adema, Principal, Vx Capital Partners

Moderated by: Robert Gates, Managing Director, RPK Capital

10.20 Morning refreshments

10.50 Battle for engine dominance

The engine manufacturers have for decades been the leaders in technological innovation, and are also the key drivers of the next generation of narrowbody aircraft. Their business model has always depended on long term aftermarket revenues from the sale of spares, but will this comfortable nest be shaken up in the years to come?

• How is the engine OEM model changing as younger aircraft get parted out?
• Have we started to plateau in terms of technologial improvements possible?
• Are modern reliable engines a victim of their own success?
• What financing opportunities are there in the engine space?
• Are we heading toward total OEM control of the aftermarket?

Dale Carson, General Manager, LEAP Technology Strategy, CFM

Joseph O'Brien, EVP Sales, ELFC

Giles Thomas, Sales Director, Rolls Royce

James Speich, Director of Marketing, Pratt & Whitney Commerical Engines

Moderated by George Dimitroff, Senior Aviation Analyst, Ascend

11.20 Creative financing alternatives and emerging markets

The leasing world is looking to the East for new financing but the depth of the market is still uncertain.

• Where is the greatest potential for lessors to source funds in emerging markets?
• What does a leasing company need to do to access these funds?
• What are the investors looking for?

Terry Cooke, SVP - Aircraft Sales, BOC Aviation

Joseph Shanahan, Director, Citi 

Peter Reeves, VP, Commonwealth Bank of Australia

Moderated by: Ben Millard, Senior Analyst - Risk Advisory, Ascend Worldwide

12.00 Lunch

13.00 Are too many aircraft being made?

Are lease rates and second hand values weakening as new aircraft production moves up? At what point will aircraft production rates break the lessor model?

• Will demand match production as manufacturers increase rates?
• Impact of increased production rates on value
• Swelling back logs: What is the impact in 5, 10 and 20 years?
• Can putting liquidity into an oversupplied market really be a smart move?

Klaus Heinemann, Partner, HH Kapital

13.30 Capital Markets: Airlines, leasing companies…they’re all thinking about it

As lending patterns continue to shift and creative financing alternatives are sought, will finance be found on the capital markets?

• Are airlines ready to be rated?
• When will capital markets open to non-US borrowers?
• Is the investor appetite there?

Mark Streeter, Managing Director - North America Credit Research, JP Morgan 

John Beekman, Research Analyst, Fidelity

David Andrews, EVP, PIMCO 

Philip Baggaley, Director, S&P

James Palen, Managing Director, Jefferies and Company Inc

Jonathan Root, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody's

Moderated by: George Ferguson, Senior Analyst Aerospace/ Defence and Airlines, Bloomberg

14.10 Closing remarks from the chair and end of Aviation 2020 Finance Forum: San Francisco