Day Two: Thursday 29th November
08.30 Morning refreshments and welcome
09.00 Opening Remarks from the Chair
09.05 Promises from the President: Export Credit Financing
If ECAs are extended to home markets what does this mean for US manufacturers and the availability of capital? Has ECA funding new aircraft for second tier airlines caused a value gap?
- Is uncertainty about ECAs unfounded?
- What will the new US Government policy on EXIM bank be?
- Should ECAs support further secondary market transactions?
- Will there be increased use of export credit by lessors?
Doug Emerson, Senior Director, Boeing Capital
Leo Burrell, MD, Credit Agricole
Moderated by: Yevgeniya Levitin, Managing Director - Transportation Group, Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank
09.35 Trading older aircraft, ageing fleets and engines
Demand for aircraft has not recovered as expected. But is the second hand market dead, or simply stalled? Why don't airlines want to lease 10 year olds in production aircraft?
- Will trend for high replacement rates and parting out continue? How will lessors manage this?
- How have funding pressures impacted second-hand aircraft values? Are used aircraft continuing to be percieved as higher risk assets?
- Will the flood of new aircraft stymie the recovery in lease rates?
- Implication of ageing fleets (in North America): who will sell and who will buy?
Moderated by: Robert Gates, Managing Director, RPK Capital
10.20 Morning refreshments
10.50 Battle for engine dominance
The engine manufacturers have for decades been the leaders in technological innovation, and are also the key drivers of the next generation of narrowbody aircraft. Their business model has always depended on long term aftermarket revenues from the sale of spares, but will this comfortable nest be shaken up in the years to come?
- How is the engine OEM model changing as younger aircraft get parted out?
- Have we started to plateau in terms of technologial improvements possible?
- Are modern reliable engines a victim of their own success?
- What financing opportunities are there in the engine space?
- Are we heading toward total OEM control of the aftermarket?
Moderated by George Dimitroff, Senior Aviation Analyst, Ascend
11.20 Creative financing alternatives and emerging markets
The leasing world is looking to the East for new financing but the depth of the market is still uncertain.
- Where is the greatest potential for lessors to source funds in emerging markets?
- What does a leasing company need to do to access these funds?
- What are the investors looking for?
13.00 Are too many aircraft being made?
Are lease rates and second hand values weakening as new aircraft production moves up? At what point will aircraft production rates break the lessor model?
- Will demand match production as manufacturers increase rates?
- Impact of increased production rates on value
- Swelling back logs: What is the impact in 5, 10 and 20 years?
- Can putting liquidity into an oversupplied market really be a smart move?
13.30 Capital Markets: Airlines, leasing companies…they’re all thinking about it
As lending patterns continue to shift and creative financing alternatives are sought, will finance be found on the capital markets?
- Are airlines ready to be rated?
- When will capital markets open to non-US borrowers?
- Is the investor appetite there?
14.10 Closing remarks from the chair and end of Aviation 2020 Finance Forum: San Francisco